ACCOUNTABILITY_INSTRUMENT()
Preregistered predictions.
An opinion asks you to agree. A signal shows you where its author bleeds. This page is where the claims made in my essays become falsifiable commitments: registered before the results arrive, scored in public, with null results published as prominently as confirmations.
The rules
- Every prediction states five things: the metric, the threshold, the deadline, the data source, and the decision criterion. If any of the five is missing, it is an essay, not a prediction.
- Registered before results. Each entry is committed to a public git repository before the measurement window opens; the commit hash is the timestamp.
- Third-party data first. Where possible, the resolving series is published by someone else (official statistics, public price trackers), so the only discretionary act is choosing the series, made once, in advance.
- Resolvable in both directions. Each entry states what outcome refutes it. CONFIRMED, MIXED and WRONG get the same font size.
- Nullius in verba. Anyone can recompute every score from the cited sources.
The register
STATUS: OPEN — FIRST BATCH IN PREPARATION
The first entries accompany The Scarcity Ladder series: the generation-versus-verification cost ratio, the Tail Premium, and the Originality Premium. Nothing is registered yet, and per rule 2, nothing will be claimed as predicted until it appears here with a verifiable timestamp. If this page is still empty when the series' measurement posts are published, hold that against the author.